Stratfor (no link) has an interesting take on Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon:
…the capture of Israeli troops, first one in the south, then two in the north, has galvanized Israel. The kidnappings represent a level of Arab tactical prowess that previously was the Israeli domain. They also represent a level of tactical slackness on the Israeli side that was previously the Arab domain. These events hardly represent a fundamental shift in the balance of power. Nevertheless, for a country that depends on its cultural superiority, any tremor in this variable reverberates dramatically. Hamas and Hezbollah have struck the core Israeli nerve. Israel cannot ignore it.
By cultural, the author (who I suspect is George Friedman) means military culture. He adds that this isn’t the sole explanation for Israel's actions, but it certainly seems to nail the sense of lashing out that you get from them. Anyway, the prediction:
Israel cannot tolerate an insurgency on its northern frontier; if there is one, it wants it farther north.
It cannot tolerate attacks on Haifa.
It cannot endure a crisis of confidence in its military
Hezbollah cannot back off of its engagement with Israel.
Syria can stop this, but the cost to it stopping it is higher than the cost of letting it go on.
It would appear Israel will invade Lebanon. The global response will be noisy. There will be no substantial international action against Israel. Beirut's tourism and transportation industry, as well as its financial sectors, are very much at risk.
If he’s right, expect a full scale invasion starting this weekend.