This time, ones which fly from shore to ship. Indulge me a moment while I draw possibly unconnected things together and speculate wildly. First off, Paul Rogers’ article in Open democracy, the subject of which is partly Chinese missiles supplied to Iran:
…the partnership between China and Iran goes much deeper than weapons; as Navy International says, "the two nations have advanced from a straightforward seller/buyer relationship to one of technology transfer and weapons co-development".
This level of cooperation means that Iran can modify and otherwise develop Chinese designs specifically for conditions in the Persian Gulf and the northern Arabian Sea, and to meet the challenge posed by the ships of the US navy's fifth fleet.
The US navy is the main “red team” in China’s war planning, so this makes a kind of sense. It’s certainly interesting to learn that the Persian Gulf is now China’s western front.
Now, back in early January, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani visited Bejing for a couple of days. Coverage of the event focused on the nuclear issue. But as well as being Tehran’s point man on nukes, Larijani is also the Islamic Republic’s general head of national security, and as such has overall responsibility for Iran’s general defence relationship with China. So it may be that the discussion was about more than just nukes.
Before 2004 Larijani was the Iranian culture minister, and as such in charge of the “orientation” of the local media. Specifically, he oriented it towards Islamic conservatives, so laying the groundwork for Ahmadinejad’s victory.
Yet since Larijani got back from Beijing the direction of travel seems to have changed. Various newspapers connected with the wider conservative faction in Iranian politics and with Larijani in particular have been leading the charge against the A-man.
I don’t think it’s too outlandish to assume that this is in some way influenced by China. It seems clear that we have reached some kind of bottom line here. China is prepared to let its arsenal be used to defend Iran against the US, to the extent of letting the Iranians tinker with the technology to suit their own requirements. But maybe the price for that is dispensing with – or at least marginalizing – Ahmadinejad and his unique take on diplomacy. Missiles yes: loose cannon on the other hand....i hear the sound of hatches being battened down here.
Sort of relatedly, China Matters has a great post on the Belgrade effect.
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