some clairvoyance

Predictably, Martin Kettle wags a priggish finger at the makers of the Trial of Tony Blair:

First the freedom fighters at Channel 4 made a film about the assassination of George Bush. Next Monday night they are locking Tony Blair in a cell and putting him on trial. Isn't that great? What a heroic fight-back by the creative classes. Let's all fire our Kalashnikovs into the Hampstead air in celebration. Memo to Channel 4: maybe you can hang Blair on a mobile phone video next season.

That’s actually not a bad idea for a bit of guerilla marketing, maybe for IKEA – “some assembly required.”

As it goes, I think the Blair saga will end in jail, but not over anything political. Take a look at the man and you see someone with a passionate belief in the truth of whatever he’s saying at the time. He seems to be in chronic financial trouble. And he’s apparently signed himself up to be thoroughly and ruthlessly marketed – ooh, Martha, use me like the dirty brand I am. At the very least it indicates a willingness to put his face in front of anything potentially lucrative. And we know, of course, that he’s a world class moocher.

Now take, on the other hand, Blair’s fans: people like Martin Kettle, for instance. He’s a self-assured sort of chap, confident in his intelligence and mature understanding of the ways that the world really works. If you’ve ever read David Maurer’s The Big Con, you’ll know what I’m getting at here: it’s the profile of the classic sucker.

There is a real market in ex-leaders, people who’ve made genuine friends and contacts in their time at the top which can later be utilized at the service of major corporations and consultancies. I’m not so sure Mr T is in this category. It’s not clear to me that anyone’s going to pick up the phone to him in his capacity as a private citizen. It’s a bit like some executive who gets overpromoted, botches the job to the point of dismissal and then can’t find anything on his pay grade. The press release says he's "decided to step down" but everyone in the know knows he's a dud.

Well, so you have a man who needs to earn lots of money, who isn’t actually very good at anything, and who seems to believe that any project is sanctified by his presence. And you have a group of devoted followers who believe implicitly in his integrity.

I’m not sure of the details. Financial scam? Bogus charity? Front for money laundering? Anyway, I give it five years tops between the door of number ten shutting and the cell door gaping.

Comments

[bbm]

Not to forget the Sue Townsend radio play on Radio 4 this week.

I think your argument goes off the rails when you say Bliar isn't good at anything. I think that, though he's lost his shine of late, he's been good at a lot (over the past 10 years), just that they are not very good things.

[Katherine]

Also, he isn't really going to have money problems when Cherie makes more than enough to support them both.

[jamie]

I'm not actually sure he's the electoral genius he makes himself out to be. It would have been next to impossible to lose to the tories in 97, and very difficult indeed in 2001 and 2005. He does have the conman qualities in abundance, though.

Katherine: I think the Blairs are paying around £15 000 a month on their house in central London, which is more than a part time judge cum lawyer can clear comfortably I think. And I don't believe they intend to just scrape by after Blair leaves office.

[Katherine]

Au contraire. She's probably grossing somewhere between a half and a million quid a year. Fifteen grand a month doesn't suck all that up by any means.