le debacle

According to this Defence Tech run down, Georgia has about 30,000 troops in total. Apparently the longer term intent is to create an Israeli style setup where a professional core trains generations of conscripts and reservists.

The Russians have about a million troops. Obviously, they won’t all be available for the current conflict. But they also apparently have lots of eager francs tireurs on hand: Ossetes, Terek Cossacks, Abkhazians and such. Two thousand Georgian troops are also in Iraq, which makes the timing of the attack on Tskhinvali look all the more dubious.

Presumably the plan was to drive through Tskhinvali to block the Rokki tunnel, the only means the Russians have of funnelling men into the war zone. The Georgian bombardment of the city, interspersed with ceasefires, also seems to have been done with an eye towards refugees flooding northwards and blocking Russian access.

It doesn’t seem to have worked. The Russians moved quickly and now seem to have retaken Tskhinvali, and the Georgians seem to be diverting troops against the possibility of an attack through Abkhazia.

I don’t know what Saakashvili was thinking with this. But look at the score: Blair, Aznar, Olmert, Saakashvili. Whom the Gods mean to drive mad they first make friendly with the Americans.

Who’s to blame discussed at length here. Actually, the question now seems to be less “who should you support” but “what can be done to stop the Russians trashing Georgia proper", assuming that this is on their minds.

The Azeris are now claiming that Russian jets attacking Georgia are taking off from Armenia. Onwards to Nagorno Kharabakh.