class of 2015

This doesn’t look good:

Now, nearly everything is on the table for discussion. Starting Monday, exiled Tibetans from around the world will gather in Dharmsala, called together by the Dalai Lama for a six-day meeting that could end years of carefully moderated policies toward Beijing.

In a town of often-feuding exiles, many now have at least one thing to agree upon: Their movement has reached a crossroad. The Dalai Lama is growing old, a young generation of activists want tough talk toward China and Beijing is moving thousands of ethnic Han Chinese into Tibet.

 …The days of CIA-backed Tibetan military units ended decades ago, and even the most hard-line exiles see no hope in fighting China's army. Today, the clearest divide is between those favoring Tibetan autonomy and those favoring independence.

But there are also endless sub-permutations, with various factions urging more protests, angrier protests, boycotts, more pressure on Western nations and, among a small group, a push for sabotage of China's infrastructure.

I think it’s reasonable to assume that “sabotaging China’s infrastructure” means “blowing stuff up”. A certain railway springs to mind.

The article talks about a new post-Dalai policy. I doubt the government in exile without him would have the authority to enforce one. There’ll be a new Dalai – actually, there’ll be two, because the Chinese will have a pet candidate – but he’ll probably be a toddler so we’ll have a long interregnum providing plenty of time for the Tibetan movement to lapse into fragmentation and violence. I suppose Beijing would rather have this than give the Dalai a deal. There’s no conceivable way that the Tibetans could win any outright combat and in launching one they would give China the opportunity to settle the matter once and for all. Meanwhile, you have all the joys of irregular ethnic warfare generated in what China says is its own territory. The world doesn’t need this right now. China doesn’t need it.