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February 12, 2010

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Alex

Also, it's worth pointing out that practically the whole staff that implemented John Howard's quasi-Rove god'n'guns strategy in Australia is now working for the Tories.

Leinad

Heh, god'n'guns - hard pitch for Howard considering he presided over a ban on all semi/fully automatic rifles in his first year in office.

Crosby-Textor, whose dogwhistling worked a treat in the 2001 and 2004 elections went over to cook up "Are You Thinking What We're Thinking?" for Michael Howard.

The denialist takeover of the Libs was in part driven by tactical decisions taken by the Labor party - specifically they didn't sell their emissions trading regime with any force, preferring to put the onus on Turnbull and the Liberal moderates to do the grunt work.

The party denialists seized on this, convincing enough of the caucus that they were going to alienate their base and hand Rudd a major policy coup in exchange for kind words and a pat on the back. However, on the last day they fucked up - the original plan had been for the more moderate Joe Hockey to take the leadership off Turnbull but he was deeply ambivalent about it and frittered his support away, leading to the much more hardline Abbott eliminiating him in the first secret ballot.

The weak support for the Government's ETS in that poll is somewhat misleading - two other questions had the Government's approach to climate change beating the Oppositions, and support for carbon trading of some kind is still strong, but Labor, by leaving a huge vacuum for most of last year has created huge confusion about it's scheme and that's opened the door to a fear campaign by Abbott and his denier cadres.

Oh and the scheme itself is a lemon, larded with subsidies and free permits for all major emitters and only capable of mickey mouse reductions by 2020.

Leinad

Addendum: Glover's talking bollocks re: a Liberal surge and an early election.

The hard Right has definately been revitalised by having a firebreather in power but this has lead to a consolidation of the base vote - Abbott is poison to moderates and swing voters, particularly women and at the current rate of Coalition gaffes Labor is going to be quite happy to drag pre-campaign sparring out to August.

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