A South Korean ship has been sunk in the vicinity of the maritime border with North Korea. While details are sketchy, initial reports suggest that some South Korean naval ships had been involved in combat with an unidentified ship in the area immediately preceding the incident. Other reports suggest that the ship was struck by a torpedo. Yet another indicates a stern explosion.
This is nuts, even for Pyongyang. It's also a casus belli. But:
the South Korean army, air force and navy are far better equipped and run than the North’s, despite the North’s numerical superiority when it comes to men in uniform. Stratfor has little doubt that the South could ultimately prevail in a military conflict.
But – and this is the second issue – it would come at a massive cost. The North maintains many thousands of artillery emplacements within range of Seoul. So while the South’s military is superior by most measures, the North could quite easily decimate the South’s capital and largest city. Roughly one in four South Koreans live in Seoul.
So no war, then. But the incident seems to have followed hard on this:
North Korea's military warned South Korea and the United States on Friday of "unprecedented nuclear strikes" as it expressed anger over a report the two countries plan to prepare for possible instability in the totalitarian country, a scenario it dismissed as a "pipe dream."
The North routinely issues such warnings.
“So what’s happening today?” “Nothing much. A routine threat of total annihilation from Pyongyang. You know. The usual.”
I don’t know what the proximate cause of the attack on the ship is. But the nuclear threat follows meetings between South Korean and US military planners discussing potential instability when KJI finally pops his clogs. According to Nightwatch, meanwhile, South Korea has also been staging defence talks with China, presumably with the same concern in mind. As I say, I don’t know what the ship incident portends, but Pyongyang’s usual attitude in these circumstances seems to be: “instability? here, have as much as you want.” If the regime is approaching terminus, it clearly doesn't intend to go quietly.
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