There’s a fellow called Selig Harrison who used to work for the Washington Post, and who now apparently spends his time reading a lot of Buchan, Hopkirk, et al.
While the world focuses on the flood-ravaged Indus River valley, a quiet geopolitical crisis is unfolding in the Himalayan borderlands of northern Pakistan, where Islamabad is handing over de facto control of the strategic Gilgit-Baltistan region in the northwest corner of disputed Kashmir to China.
The entire Pakistan-occupied western portion of Kashmir stretching from Gilgit in the north to Azad (Free) Kashmir in the south is closed to the world, in contrast to the media access that India permits in the eastern part, where it is combating a Pakistan-backed insurgency.
But reports from a variety of foreign intelligence sources, Pakistani journalists and Pakistani human rights workers reveal two important new developments in Gilgit-Baltistan: a simmering rebellion against Pakistani rule and the influx of an estimated 7,000 to 11,000 soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army.
All very threatening.
I suppose the point about mysterious places is that you can say anything about them. But Baltistan isn’t closed to journalists and the Karakoram Highway, which connects Pakistan to China through Baltistan was opened in 1959. And I can’t find any sign at all of the simmering rebellion he talks about, though there is disagreement about whether the region should become part of Pakistan or part of some future autonomous Kashmir confederation.
20 Kilometres of the highway were inundated by landslide and floods this January, blocking Pakistan’s major trade route with Western China. Before the landslides, you could get a bus to Kashgar from Gilgit and back. It’s no surprise, therefore, that the Chinese are rebuilding it. There is an al Qaedist style campaign of violence against local Shi'a and other such heretics so the presence of PLA units guarding local Chinese workers also wouldn't be a surprise. Having said that, the PLA has got a long history of using its people in disaster areas. See also, for instance, the US Army Corps of Engineers. This seems to me to be a very thin basis for arguing that the Chinese are staging a takeover, though it does play into a popular meme right now.
It’s also true that both China and Pakistan want to develop the highway to connect with Chinese built port facilities at Gwadior, to which the answer is: so what?
There is some New Great Game diplomacy going on here: though Harrison is participating in it rather than describing it. he refers to GB as part of wider Kashmir. That’s the Indian government position. Islamabad maintains that it is an entirely separate district, though one that was once controlled by Kashmir’s Dogra rulers, who ceded their territory to India in 1947 (for more, see here). What the Indians want here, and what Harrison seems to want to help them get, is locus standi rights over Pakistan’s main border connection to China.
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