James and I had a schalchtbummeler chat back when he was in Manchester last January about where China's coming out as a great power war would be. James reckoned Vietnam; I preferred Nepal ( a proxy struggle between China and India). Judging by this fascinating blog, we may both be wrong.
Not that I think there's going to be a shooting war anytime soon. We're nowhere near the end of the potential for civilian deployment. Mainly, the flag follows the fish, but check out this hardcore deployment of Buddhist monks to the Spratlys.