Max Fisher offers some caveats to the imminent regime downfall narrative, using Sri Lanka as an example:
Sri Lanka's long conflict between the government and ethnic minority rebels is far too brutal and complicated to be truly analogous to any war, particularly Syria's. Yet the rebel gains were at times so dramatic, and yet their ultimate defeat was so total, that it's a reminder of the difference between wounding a regime, no matter how severely, and actually toppling it. In 1991, suicide bombers killed 19 people in the capital, including the hardliner defense minister, a major victory for the rebels. Later that year, they killed 50 more, some of them top officials, at a major military headquarters. Two years later, they killed the president. Yet the government's forces became only more inhumanly brutal, and in a 2009 orgy of killing, they won.