time for another dodgy dossier

Alex Thomson isn’t too impressed by the various Syrian Chemical weapons stories going around

Once more, weapons of mass destruction could become weapons of mass deception at screaming high volume these past few days. From the western media who, in the heated atmosphere pre-Iraq and under pressure from Bush and Blair, brought us the Baghdad WMD story, now we have the “Damascus chemical weapons threat”.

Here’s my old friend Cheryl Rofer’s analysis. She’s a bit sceptical too. So is the guest poster at the Colonel’s place.

I think there may be an intervention of some sort planned around the existence of CW agents in Syria, but the evidence that Assad is anywhere near using them is so thin that it looks to me more like an attempt to insert into the public mind the necessity of post-Assad intervention in case the chemical cocktails 'fall into the wrong hands': a bit of airpower to get the right rebels in power when the time comes to make the final rush on the presidential palace; the pretext for what will be billed as peacekeeping by NATO and/or regional forces; or a standoff arming of local proxies, Libya style. Whatever's right. In other words, we’re in prepping for phase two of the Syrian civil war.  Among other things, it’s kind of the obverse of the interventionist mentality. The locals aren’t going to be allowed to do it for themselves.

Comments

[Cheryl Rofer]

The New York Times seems to be walking back NBC's hysteria. And I'm wondering how they even know this if it was a small amount.

Says the Times:

American officials have detected that Syrian troops have mixed small amounts of precursor chemicals for sarin, a deadly nerve gas, at one or two storage sites — though there is no indication that Mr. Assad, whose troops are under fierce assault from rebel forces, is ready to order the use of his arsenal.

[Guano]

It's odd how chemical weapons are only being mentioned now. If Syria actually has chemical weapons why wasn't this mentioned 10 or 20 years ago.

The implication is either that Syria does not have chemical weapons, or that just about any country in the Middle East (including our allies) has chemical weapons.

[Alex]

It's odd how chemical weapons are only being mentioned now. If Syria actually has chemical weapons why wasn't this mentioned 10 or 20 years ago.

Syria is a declared chemical weapons state, as in, they say openly that they possess chemical weapons. This is a nontrivial long term consequence of Iraq, of course - nobody will believe us ever again.

I don't think the Israelis would bother, btw, as who wants to prat about with chemicals when you have nukes?

[Alex]

@Cheryl: the obvious way they might know it would be from an air sampling device of some kind, probably either attached to a UAV or emplaced on the ground close to the storage site by the rebels. I think it might work if you could get close enough.

Homeland Security spent a lot of money on detection, and it wouldn't be that surprising if somebody had the idea of lashing the prototype laser spectrometer or whatever to a Global Hawk, or alternatively camouflaging it as a box of Syrian Corn Flakes.

[dick gregory]

Anyone know what this stuff is?
Regime Drops TNT Barrels Filled With Strange Material

[Alex]

White phosphorous, I think?

[ajay]

Yes, when the story is "they dropped a barrel full of stuff that caused a big explosion and fires" the nature of the stuff is not exactly a mystery that need detain us for long. Barrels of improvised napalm would be my guess, Air America style (avgas plus Tide detergent).

[Chris Williams]

Though it might be a sign that they are running out of HE.

[ajay]

Chris Williams: indeed - see here
http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/syrian-forces-improvised-arms-desperate-measures-or-deliberate-aid/

[jamie]

They've been caught dropping naval mines as well. Actual kitchen sinks next, I guess.