Here's a quick one for the annals of China watching. Where do you look for evidence that a corruption Crackdown in China is serious and or effective?
That is also why the hedge fund managers who like luxury goods as a proxy for the growth of corruption in China continue to hold the shares of companies such as Richemont and Prada. Mainland sales of watches and jewellery may go down but sales offshore are likely to continue as prudent Chinese continue their extravagant purchases – just not in China itself.
I'm not sure about this last metric: salex of luxury goods in China are already depressed somewhat by extra sales taxes, and it's that which drives the regular storming of the greed pavilion otherwise known as Harrods, etc. A half-serious rectification would see this flow of consumers dry up, at least to some extent.
Another thing to look for, maybe. I'd need to check this somehow but I think mini coopers are mistress cars in China. That would leave sales extremely vulnerable to a rectification, exdpecially since the favoured means of exposure these days seems to be by means of cherchez la femme.