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March 01, 2013

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john b

The mistake the Tories have made for the last 30 years is "assuming that the EU matters to anybody". The same principle also destroyed Labour in 1983.

None of the polls show that UKIP covers give a shit about the EU, they just hate everyone and wish it were 1953.

So the Tory reaction to the Kippers is almost exactly up there with the US reaction to 9-11.

"HAHA YOU STUPID CAMERON BASTARD, WE NEED TO LEAVE THE EU AND SACK YOU"

"But guys, I'm 10 points more popular than the party, and nobody gives a shit about the EU"

"FUCK OFF YOU'RE SACKED"

At which point, there isn't a Tory-led government, which I suppose is a qualified win.

Phil

Lib Dems: Hey, we won! The people still love us! I agree with Nick! It's a coalition of equals!

Tories: We fielded a right-wing nutter, and she got beaten by a Kipper. Not only that, but her and the Kipper between them got 53% of the vote. That's a majority in the old money. We march (rightwards) at dawn!

Eastleigh: the victory that destroyed the Coalition. Happy days.

Richard J

Eastleigh: the victory that destroyed the Coalition. Happy days

You know who else won themselves to death in a push towards the East...?

Drang Nach Ostwiese.

Alex

Really, there was no possible outcome that wouldn't have been horrible for the coalition. Tories win: LDs pushed closer to the edge. LDs win: Tories look stupid, Cameron pushed closer to the edge. Labour win: epic triumph for Labour, Tories and LDs look like fools. UKIP win: LDs humiliated, Cameron forced to resign as Tory leader and hence PM.

The result was a cocktail of 2 and 4, LDs winning as UKIP split the vote. LDs winning on a Tory/Labour split would have been bad, but less so.

chris y

they just hate everyone and wish it were 1953.

I think you mean 1955. In 1953 meat and sugar were still rationed, but Winston was PM, so the would-be-Kippers' cognitive dissonance at the time was more or less complete.

Seriously, nobody cares about the EU, but they have in fact noticed this, which is why they pretend it's about immigration instead. Lots of room for not quite fascist sentiments in Doncaster or Boston if you make it about immigration, because unemployment.

dsquared

Focus group time!

If the Conservative Party was a member of your extended family, which family member would it be?

Hold that image in your head.

Now, imagine yourself having a long conversation with that family member.

What would you enjoy talking about?
What would you not enjoy talking about?
What subjects of conversation would make you stab pencils into your ears muttering "shutupshutupshutupmakeitstop" out of irritation and awkwardness?

Now keep those three categories in your mind. I'm going to name some political issues, and I'd like you to say which of those three categories they'd fall under.

1. The European Union
2. Immigration
3. Gay marriage

I am Frank Luntz, that will be nine thousand pounds please.

Doug

No, not the Forest of Dean - I fancy visiting there some time. The South Lincolnshire Fens would be ideal - sea levels rising...

Alex

On the other hand, D^2, you'd be horrified if Crazy Uncle Nigel started talking about economics, how to organise education or the NHS, policing, criminal justice, defence, major infrastructure projects, or indeed anything.

This suggests that the optimal strategy for Tories is to shut up, which although superficially attractive to me may not be practical for them, or as a second best, to say nothing of substance.

I note that the two most successful conservative political campaigns of the post-crisis era, Rajoy's in Spain and Cameron's in the UK, were all characterised by not saying much of substance. Merkel was an incumbent, which is different, and it's still not easy to point to any major policy agenda of hers inside Germany and still less to anything distinctively conservative. The Tea Party, by far the loudest, didn't win.

Cian

The Tea Party, by far the loudest, didn't win.

Actually they kinda did. At a state level (which among things gives them control over voting) they did very well indeed.

Alex

They didn't win like Dave or Mariano, though. That's winning. It's good to be king.

john b

Seriously, nobody cares about the EU, but they have in fact noticed this, which is why they pretend it's about immigration instead.

UKIP has noticed this. I'm not convinced the right wing of the Tory party have noticed this, though.

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