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I've got an op-ed up about the various discussions following David Shambaugh's recent prediction of the forthcoming endgame of Communist Party rule in China. Over here:
Posted at 07:08 PM | Permalink
IIRC when Shambaugh's piece first appeared you remarked on Twitter that you considered he had always placed too much credence in the Party's formal processes (forgive me if I've misremembered this). This observation doesn't feature in the article in the Nation - perhaps it would have been out of place. Care to expand?
March 30, 2015 at 02:27 PM
Well that was a kind of insta-response. He does take a very top down serious people talking seriously to serious people view of how China operates and works under the assumption that they're all giving him the straight dope, that they are all aware of the bigger picture and that they're broadly working towards the ends that he thinks they should be working for. It would have been hard to jam an account of how much chaos, contingency and power struggle affects into a review of responses to what he said. That's a whole different article.
Though of course Shambaugh thinks the objective of Chinese governance is reform; so does Xi, but Xi takes a very different biew of what that means. Maybe that tipped him.
James has got a good piece on Shambaugh's last book here: http://online.thatsmags.com/post/policy-wonker
March 30, 2015 at 06:13 PM
Thanks! Yes, I imagine that is at least one whole different article.
James's piece is sadly inaccessible at present - I tried numerous routes but couldn't get there. Will keep looking.
March 31, 2015 at 11:43 AM
Malcs, that's odd. I just pasted the URL as supplied into the address line and up it came, a bit slow but not remarkably. Chrome under Win 7, fwiw. The article is well worth reading.
chris y |
March 31, 2015 at 01:45 PM
Working for me too now thanks Chris. And certainly worth the wait! I think my copy of Atrophy and Adaptation is going to spend a little more time staring balefully at me from the shelf.
March 31, 2015 at 09:53 PM
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