Mr. Jones said the timing of any major reduction in coalition forces will depend on several key factors, starting with the national elections scheduled for December.
A second factor will be how comfortable coalition forces feel in ceding control to Iraqi security forces of an increased amount of territory in the center and center-south of the country.A third factor, which used to be critical but has dropped from current withdrawal scenarios, is defeating the violent insurgency that is holding Iraq's economy hostage.
"It is pretty clear that the length of most successful counterinsurgencies is about nine years on average. I don't think anyone has the political stomach to wait that long," said Mr. Jones.
Mr. al-Jaafari's spokesman said that a gradual withdrawal joined with political progress might weaken support for the insurgents, who have tried to build support by portraying American troops as foreign occupiers.
So we're not to bothered about retreating in the middle of the war, and it might just be that our presence is fuelling it. It used to be only reflexively anti-American extremists who said that.
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