Nir Rosen presents a best case scenario for what happens after the withdrawal of troops from Iraq:
Were America not in Iraq, Sunni leaders could negotiate and participate without fear that they themselves would be branded traitors and collaborators by their constituents. Sunni leaders have said this in official public statements; leaders of the resistance have told me the same thing in private. The Iraqi government, which is currently dominated by Shiites, would lose its quisling stigma. Iraq's security forces, also primarily Shiite, would no longer be working on behalf of foreign infidels against fellow Iraqis, but would be able to function independently and recruit Sunnis to a truly national force. The mere announcement of an intended U.S. withdrawal would allow Sunnis to come to the table and participate in defining the new Iraq.
I think it's true that the military occupation aggravates the insurgency and emphasises a sectarian character. But it doesn't necessarily follow that the withdrawal of troops will bring the two sides together. Absent the US military, Sunni guerillas and their poitical allies will assume full control of their own territory. There will be no-one with the power to stop them. They'll have the additonal legitimacy conferred by being liberators of that territory from foreign military occupation. And under the protection of the occupation, the Shi'a side have finally got the political power warranted by their majority status in the country. Both sides have enough military force to prevent the other from assuming total control over the country at large. Given that a 'national' compromise would see each side losing some of the power it weilds over its own territory, it becomes questionable whether either side has any stake in the maintenance of Iraq as a nation. Of course, there are lots of Iraqis who want a national state, secular if possible, though if the performance of secular parties at the last election is anything to go by these folks aren't as numerous as we have been led to believe. And they don't have any guns.
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