OK, we’re on. Last night the Lebanon Star reported large scale Israeli ground force incursions into Lebanon. Additional info from Stratfor:
The ground war has begun. Several Israeli brigades now appear to be operating between the Lebanese border and the Litani River. According to reports, Hezbollah forces are dispersed in multiple bunker complexes and are launching rockets from these and other locations.Hezbollah's strategy appears to be threefold. First, force Israel into costly attacks against prepared fortifications. Second, draw Israeli troops as deeply into Lebanon as possible, forcing them to fight on extended supply lines. Third, move into an Iraqi-style insurgency from which Israel -- out of fear of a resumption of rocket attacks -- cannot withdraw, but which the Israelis also cannot endure because of extended long-term casualties. This appears to have been a carefully planned strategy, built around a threat to Israeli cities that Israel can't afford. The war has begun at Hezbollah's time and choosing.
Yeah, I noticed that. I think Israel’s actions over the past week have been both voluntary and disgraceful, but I also think that Hezbollah counted on that and escalated accordingly. This is interesting:
The militants appear to be armed with anti-tank weapons and probably anti-aircraft weapons, some of which appear to be of American origin, raising the question of how they were acquired.
…which may tie in to the debate about what missile Hezbollah used to attack the Israeli missile corvette last week.
I’m not going to do a half arsed bloggy analysis of the situation right now, mainly because I’m mildly drunk. But additional to that is what your gut tells you about which side you’re on right now, discounting the political and historical issues and based on the information you’ve received about this specific conflict in this time and place – I mean the basic response to the here and now. The bit of your head that responds first when you hear the news.
And on that basis I hope Hezbollah give the IDF a fucking good hiding. Actual analysis may follow.
Comments