memories of the left handed

Not much to say about Ethiopia’s offensive against the Somali ICU, other than that its early stages seem to replicate the invasion of Iraq, with the Somalis being apparently unable to stand up to superior Ethiopian firepower while in open country. Let’s see what happens if and when the Ethiopians try to enter Mogadishu.

The other point is that this conflict isn’t a straightforward Islamist/Christian match up everyone seems to be assuming; or at least that the religious aspect of the fight ties in with traditional Somali irredentism from way, way back.

In Ethiopia the damage which [Ahmad] Gragn did has never been forgotten," wrote Paul B. Henze. "Every Christian highlander still hears tales of Gragn in his childhood. Haile Selassie referred to him in his memoirs. I have often had villagers in northern Ethiopia point out sites of towns, forts, churches and monasteries destroyed by Gragn as if these catastrophes had occurred only yesterday."[11] While acknowledging that many modern Somali nationalists consider Ahmad a national hero, Henze dismisses their claims, stating that the concept of a Somali nation did not exist during Ahmad's lifetime.

More recently, there have been two border conflicts in the last 45 years. I think that Ethiopia’s main interest in this conflict lies in keeping Somalia weak, rather than putting an end to Islamism in the country. Meles Zenawi seems to be saying as much here:

Meles has said he does not intend to keep his forces in Somalia long, perhaps only a few weeks. He has told visiting dignitaries that his goal is to severely damage the Islamic movement's military capabilities and allow both sides to return to peace talks on even footing.

It looks like it might be Eritrea's turn to make a move, though they may hold on to see whether more troops are sucked into the conflict.

Comments

[chris y]

I wish somebody could tell me what the impact of this is likely to be on Somaliland, which appears to be increasingly an Ethiopian client state. Will they be dragged in? On what basis? Will the ICU attempt to reintegrate/conquer them in retailiation (I know the area under ICU control is isolated in the south, but if Ethiopia get bogged down, that could change)?