when we say myspace, we mean it seriously

DefenseTech is speculating that the Chinese satellite killer launch was a bit of military freelancing which has left Beijing a bit dumbstruck, citing the New York Times in support, as follows:

The American officials presume that Mr. Hu was generally aware of the missile testing program, but speculate that he may not have known the timing of the test. China’s continuing silence would appear to suggest, at a minimum, that Mr. Hu did not anticipate a strong international reaction, either because he had not fully prepared for the possibility that the test would succeed, or because he did not foresee that American intelligence on it would be shared with allies, or leaked.

In an interview late Friday, Stephen J. Hadley, President Bush’s national security adviser, raised the possibility that China’s leaders might not have fully known what their military was doing.

“The question on something like this is, at what level in the Chinese government are people witting, and have they approved?” Mr. Hadley asked.

Come on, people: Leninist State, right? Power grows out of the barrel of a gun. But the Party controls the gun.

China Matters has been doing some digging, in particular at the website of Major General Peng Guangqian, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Military Science and quote merchant on Chinese military affairs to the Asian media. General Peng has come up with some boilerplate for the press. But on his site he links to an article in Chinese by someone calling himself Future Warrior, who writes:

What is interesting is that this overweening country [the USA] began to regard space as its own back yard. The national space policy it announced in 2006 nonchalantly regarded space as its private property. At the same time, when China at the United Nations proposed a special international organization to resolve the actual problems of a space arms race that were being faced, the United States, acting as a country far in the lead in space, vehemently opposed, saying that there was no arms race in space.…

We hope that at the same time that this Chinese ballistic missile destroys that old satellite, it will smack the American carnivores back to reason. History shows us that if you don't hit Americans, they aren't willing to sit down at the negotiation table.

China Matters concludes that this, in a less than temperate form, is the view of the Chinese government and military, offered to interested parties in a deniable format. It does conform with what we do know of China’s military objectives. It follows from this that Beijing decided to present the test as a fait accompli and see how the world responded before deciding how to proceed. If so, the fact that the US seems to have decided to avoid pinning the blame on Beijing may be significant. Alex points out that the missile test was effectively a space grab, since the existing arrangements effectively guarantee freedom of action to anyone utilizing space for any legitimate purpose. Perhaps what’s in the offing here is a negotiation over the division of the spoils, maybe with a view to extending territoriality upwards.