empire beckons

A few years ago a Chinese current affairs journal called Strategy and Management published a series of articles on North Korea quoting officials in Beijing to the effect that they were getting sick of the Kingdom of Kim. It was promptly shut down for what now looks like the sin of premature anti-Pyongyanginess:

The top item on the Chinese website of Beijing's embassy in Pyongyang is a condemnation of North Korea's nuclear test. That, and a recent blast of blunt criticism of North Korea in China's state-run press, suggest the rancour that officials feel towards their communist neighbour -- anger likely to bring Beijing behind a U.N. resolution condemning the May 25 test and threatening fresh sanctions.

In Beijing’s view, the world is a random bundle of opportunities and ‘policy’ is whatever makes the maximum number possible of these opportunities available to China. The opportunities in North Korea consist basically of charging as much as possible for keeping the lights on. If the family Kim or whoever succeeds them opens the economy, then that’s a whole load more opportunities. Meanwhile, wait: and seek opportunities elsewhere.

Despite all the handwaving about China’s indifference to the political situation in places like North Korea or Zimbabwe, my guess is that the Western powers would be a good deal more worried if a country which holds a huge amount of their investment and which buys an enormous amount of their debt suddenly started developing a fully formed weltpolitik to go along with it. We don’t want the Chinese foreign ministry developing ideas, not unless they’re ours.

But if North Korea succeeds in triggering a regional arms race and a concurrent rise in nationalism in South Korea and Japan then China might lose a lot more opportunities than it gains by maintaining the status quo. The Reuters report doesn’t expect much movement from Beijing soon. But then it’s a big step. Choosing between alternatives breaks the prime directive.