arranging the succession

Simon Tisdall on China and North Korea: 

But China faces a difficult choice. Too much pressure could be counterproductive. If the ailing Kim's political position is as weak as some analysts suggest, he could fall in an internal military coup or succession struggle. Or the regime may implode, sending a flood of refugees across the Chinese border. The ensuing chaos could bring American intervention in China's backyard and prospectively, a reunited, democratic, pro-western Korea – a displeasing prospect for Beijing. 

No, the bottom line here is that no-one – not China, not Japan, not the USA and definitely not Seoul – wants to take responsibility for twenty million odd starving North Koreans. The whole diplomatic effort has been to get Pyongyang on to the standard East Asian authoritarian development track. The problem is that the family Kim and the KWP leadership doesn’t fancy the prospect of becoming glorified factory managers for Chinese, South Korean and Japanese capital. A shame, really, since this would be a distinct improvement and there surely isn’t anything better on offer. But there you go. 

 For what it’s worth, my official Cheonan theory goes like this. Kim Jong-il is obviously dying, but before he goes off to officially become a god he’s got to manage the handover to Kim Jong-un. That’s tricky because Kim the third is still in his twenties and has not had the chance to work his way through the system and establish personal power networks. So it’s a tricky business, and from Pyongyang’s point of view, one best conducted in complete isolation without any prospect of foreign meddling. Hence the berserker behaviour, which also ties the senior DPRK military leadership further to the Kims through their joint responsibility. 

Tisdall goes on: 

On the other hand, if it stands back and Kim gets away with the Cheonan attack (which US intelligence believes he personally authorised), China's wish for acceptance as a responsible member of the international community will suffer. 

Well I bet they’re weeping into their cornflakes at that prospect over in Zhongnanhai. I wish people could let go of this idea that there’s something called the “international community” which China stands outside in some way, but that’s by the by. As Willy Lam points out, Chinese policy has taken a sharply pro-Pyongyang tilt since last year. Beijing knows that the succession’s coming up, it knows that Jong-un is a weak candidate, and perhaps believes that if it can use whatever influence it has in the North to ensure his succession then they have their man in charge in Pyongyang. 

“In charge” being a relative term, of course. It’s not hard to see how this is supposed to pan out. Kim Jong-un spends increasing amounts of time at his palatial villa in the hills to the west of Beijing, capital floods into the country from North and South, the North Korean military and civilian leadership are paid off with lucrative contracts, the nukes are quietly dropped, everyday North Koreans get to eat more regularly – and China oversees the whole process.

Comments

[Richard J]

Reading this makes me wonder what the Korean equivalent of 'clogs to clogs in three generations' is.

That said, I suppose the real politics is precisely that on which the outside world has next to no visibility on - dynastic systems with weak uninvolved figureheads tend to become riddled with palace intrigue - I'd imagine the upper echelons of the Korean government/armed forces/surprisingly unexpected centres of power would be an... interesting place to be at the moment. Come to think of it, didn't a surprisingly high-level figure get executed a month or two back as scapegoat for the currency exchange fiasco?

[Cian]

Tisdall's reliably wrong on most topics. I'm never quite sure whose bullshit he's relaying. CfR maybe?

[Phil]

the nukes are quietly dropped

That's a good trick - although of course this is the DPRK we're talking about.

Is it really Jong-un with a lower-case u - as in Young-un, or indeed Wrong-un?

[jamie]

That seems to be the agreed on spelling so far, though South Korean media have started calling him Kim Jong Eun. He occasionally crops up as Jong Woon as well, which I think may be the sinified version.

[ajay]

Suspect it would be quite easy to drop a DPRK nuke quietly because the chances are it wouldn't go off.

[Phil]

Um, my point, actually.

[ajay]

Oh, right, I thought you were suggesting that they'd just be able to keep it a secret.