we march on a road of bones

9:30pm Right. Liveblogging. Yes. I believe it’s traditional to start by laying out the terms of a drinking game, so here goes with the official B & T election drinking game. 

 i) watch election results. 

 ii) get drunk. 

 How’s that? 

And while we prepare to meet our doom, let’s take a look at this rather scholarly essay on how European social democracy slowly abolished itself, while nonetheless becoming surprised and anguished when the electorate duly concurred.

10:03. Blimey. Exit poll puts the Lib Dems down on seats from last time, on 59. Labour on 255 Tories on 307, 19 short. Sounds a little on the iffy side. Seems to imply that the Tories have taken LD seats, which is difficult to believe. That, plus postal votes not accounted for.

Gove on TV saying people were "flocking" to the Tories. Like Eastern Europeans to Rochdale, eh Mickey?

10:22. Mandelson on the Beeb, basically saying that the exit poll was evidence of a "long comeback" by Labour and looking incredibly sinister as he did it. Everything he says sounds like a blackmail demand. Evil man. Astounding balls, though.

10:30. Hey, insider knowledge from Richard in comments: "The missus, who is out at a work election do, reports a very muted response there, which as they're the guys responsible for the poll in the first place..." Looks like we've got an iffy one. Tories talking it down too.

10:45. Alan Johnson and the Colour Out of Space now promising PR to the Lib Dems, live on TV. Presumably they think it's worth the effort.

10:56. The mackems have done their usual speedy vote counting trick; now the exhausted counters are being thrown herrings. Low poll, labour vote down 10%. Some local character scooped up two and a half thousand votes as an independent, which may complicate things.

11:03. Apparently the DUP expect to sweep the board in Northern Ireland. Expect Tory minority government to ban papal visit on grounds that he is the antichrist. Douglas Alexander pushing "long comeback" meme to Paxman. Cold dead fingers, etc.

11: 12. Andrew Neil and Portillo: "Woe, woe, hung parliament. Think of the markets! The poor, poor, little markets! Who will think of them?" Yep. It's the love that dare not speak it's name.

11:30. Mackem vote skinners strike again. 11% swing to Tories.

11:35. Clarke just on Sky saying that PR would cause both Labour and Tory to split. He's put his finger on it, and also maybe on why it would be a good idea.

23:45. BBC talking up Tory chances in Sunderland central but it didn't fly. Majority down by 3000, 5% swing to Tories, less than in the other two seats. Back in hung parliament territory.

23:48. Reports of people turned away from the polls in Sheffield going to Nick Clegg's house to ask for his personal intercession. Now that's Cleggmania. 

23:53. "So when Nigel Farage's plane crashed, was he delivering a box of Milk Tray to someone?" laugh lines of the night, courtesy of Mrs Treasure.

The Chimes of Midnight. AP reporting that Tories are going to take Battersea. Rescue party for Charlie, anyone?

12:07. Constitutional expert wheeled on. Blah, blah, blah. So what are you all drinking then? Got me a nice little rioja. Followed by some cheap vodka I think.

12:13. David Starkey: "I call it a L'Oreal election." Thanks David. How about fuck off? Martin Amis very very drunk. 

12:22. The missus - the missus who used to read Spare Rib - just asked me which of the party leader's wives I would prefer to "do". Crazy night. Obviously, and taking a merely impartial and disinterested interest, there is a very good chance that Mrs Clegg would win this particular straw poll, while Mrs Brown's Bobby Charlton knees would be something of a deal breaker. But I throw the question open to the floor.

Sky are saying that the Lib Dems are going to take Edinburgh South.

12:28. The Beeb seem to have teleported Mandelson back to Planet Tharg. Shame. We may have been about to actually see his tentacles.

12:40. Querulous Dimbleby asking why, oh why, can't people vote. Because there's no redundancy in the system, fool. It's efficiency. It's what you all wanted. It's what you all want now, like strong government.

12:50. Peter Robinson has lost his seat in Belfast, to the Alliance no less. Which is kind of a Lib Dem win. Arch tosser Toby Young wants to do the election all over again. Maureen Lipman also very, very drunk. Celebrities of all persuasions seem to be generally crapulous. This makes me happy.

1:06 Tories take Kingswood on 9 per cent swing; also Basildon, according to the BBC. Beeb are talking up Tory majority.

1:10 Lib Dems hold Torbay. Small Lib Dem swing. Not over yet, but the Labour vote looks very, very weak. They were trained to vote for Blair, and now a lot of them are voting for the heir to Blair.

1:21. reports from Stoke Central project the BNP pushed into fourth. Yay, Tristram.

1:27. Wesleyan Pixie uprising! Plaid take Arfon, fail to take Ynys Mon. Labour vote seems to be holding up better in the Northwest. Nonetheless, Blunkett now predicting Tory majority. First Labour spokesman to say so.

1:41. It's the same old story. Labour bleeding votes in all directions, though not yet enough to benefit the Lib Dems hugely. They haven't quite chewed through the bottom of the conscience vote. If you stay a loyal Labour voter, you're going to be in the position of the Squiffyites sooner or later, probably sooner.

1:45. Labour keep Tooting, withal. So no Northwood size swing nationwide. Also, tactical voting from the Lib dems. Chaos rules.

1:58. Tories fail to take Gedling, one of their East Midlands targets. Lib Dem vote collapses in Newbury. There's no pattern here. Thy hand, great anarch!

2:02. Gerald Scarfe is showing Andrew Neil a picture of Gordon Brown with an Albatross round his neck. How about fuck off, Gerald?

2: 24. Welsh farmers take the opportunity to get rid of Lembit Opik. They're tired of carrying a professional eccentric because he carries a party label. It's just personal here, isn't it? The general point about this whole thing is that people are trying to vote as though they are free, in whatever direction suits them. You might characterise this as the individual versus the market, which we are told wants things more regulated.

2:42: Lib Dems hold Itchen and beat the Tories in Eastbourne, but lose Harrogate on a nine percent swing. Major discovery process going on among the comfortable.

2:51. George Bush looks likely to retain Edgbaston: a road of bones bones indeed.

3:04. I don't think the bond markets are going to like Cameron's acceptance speech; all the more so since it was directed to them.

3:21. Griffin concedes defeat in Barking, according to the Guardian. Paxman outraged that talks may have already begun between Lib Dems and Labour.  

3:37. Lib Dems win Burnley, but lose very badly in Oxford East. The general story is "electorate breaks free, for better or worse."  the Beeb are showing angry thwarted voters in Withington, who look like Lib Dems to me..

3:47. The BBC are saying that there were queues at polling stations in Hulme. That's unprecedented. 

Incidentally, Labour have held Rochdale: politician beats elderly female bigot. Tories win in Carlisle but Labour hold them off off in most of their Northwest marginals.

4:07. OK. time to check out now. Thanks to everyone for visiting, and putting in. I like the way the result has made the whole process difficult for the bastards of whatever party. They will no doubt adapt. The Beeb right now are predicting a narrow victory for the Tories over Ed Balls. Oh, boo fucking hoo.

Ha. Andrew Neil is taking a thirty second soundbite from considerably bald hollow eyed commentator, Nick Cohen. And on that note...

Comments

[Charlie]

How about that exit poll?

I think the Lib Dems will actually do a bit better than that, and it won't be at Labour's expense. Please, oh please.

Anyway, maybe we will be opening that second bottle of wine. In the meantime, a bath. With the missus.

[Chris Williams]

19 short? I wonder if that's a max: whereas in 1992 and 1997 the problem was 'shy tories', I think that the problem now is 'shy labour' and although the pollsters appear to be able to cope with that, I wonder it the exit polls have the same level of sophistication. That Wells guy (I knew him before he was famous, you know - he's another shwi-nee) might know but I can't be bothered with facts at this stage.

[Cian]

Anecdotally a lot of people seem to have voted by postal ballot this time.

Michael Gove. Fuck fuck fuck! Bollocks. They're going to win aren't they.

[jamie]

"In the meantime, a bath. With the missus."

Quite right. And with no more than 10cm of water. This is the age of austerity, you know.

[Richard J]

I'm watching American Dad instead. The missus, who is out at a work election do, reports a very muted response there, which as they're the guys responsible for the poll in the first place...

[Chris Williams]

That's as maybe, but I'm just getting to the end of last night's wine, and it's decision time. Is this going to be a wine night or a whisky night? I've got a endure National Express for most of the morning.

[Chris Brooke]

Evening all: it's good to have the B&T liveblog. I have a cat on my lap, a can of Stella by my side (another nine in the fridge) and haven't yet sworn at the telly. So a good start.

The cat left a dismembered mouse on the bed this morning - but we didn't have an Etruscan soothsayer to hand to tell us just what it portended.

[Richard J]

To clarify - I think the missus' point (and no doubt this is evidence of disgraceful political bias) is that few people there are that enthused by the proposed result.

And now I'm back on the election. Sunderland, eh? What a surprise.

[Richard J]

It occured to me that I've seen very little of the Nader effect this year. Most left-liberal blogs have gone to voting Labour/Lib Dems this year, albeit with varying degrees of gritted teeth.

[Chris Williams]

Y'all been reading Splinty's guide to constituencies in NI? Pure facty goodness. That would imply that the DUP might walk away with 10 seats. OTOH, the shinners don't sit, so there's no need to factor them into the opposition.

[Richard J]

Strange comment from Dimbleby about queuing being evidence of third-world politics. I'm genuiniely baffled.

Oh, Portillo as a pundit on Election Night. This is giving me a pleasant flashback to '97.

[jamie]

"Y'all been reading Splinty's guide to constituencies in NI?"

Best pieces of writing on the whole election, IMO.

[Chris Williams]

Give that man an Orwell Prize, I say. Each of them has some utter gems buried in it. Today: "Brian Feeney (the best leader the SDLP never had, in my opinion and Brian’s)"

[Richard J]

Oh, the caveats about tiny sample sizes apply, but these swings are looking unpleasant.

[Chris Brooke]

Best pieces of writing on the whole election, IMO.

Yes -- they've been terrific.

[Richard J]

Agreed.

[dsquared]

Bizarrely, the current winner in terms of mean squared error (assuming the exit poll is right) is the LSE Hix-Vyvyan UNS model with no tactical voting! (2nd is me!)

[Chris Williams]

Hang on Dan, it's _Alex's_ posts that are too technical to be understood by the uninitiated, not yours. Get it together.

[Richard J]

Thank fuck for that, scuse my French.

[jamie]

Hey, Chris B: you want to put a word in re Splinty with your new mates at CIF for a reprint? Could be informative if the Tories end up depending on NI votes.

[Chris Williams]

I'd guess that what happens in t'rustbelt probably isn't an especially good guide to what's going to happen elsewhere. Labour's line all the last week has been "Do you really want to let the Tories in, merely for the sake of giving us a perhaps deserved shoeing?" In Co Durham, it's pretty obvious that voting Tory /=Tory MP, so the shoeing can go ahead.

OTOH, there's the Ashcroft marginals....

Still, Spurs are in Europe. Get in.

[Richard J]

Apparently there is no power on Andrew Neil's boat. Now the men in black balaclavas carrying MP-5s come in.

[Charlie]

Polling stations running out of ballot papers? Queues? Not how it usually goes. And people turning up to vote late, huh. Just time for one more pint ... pillocks. But I take it as a good sign.

[Chris Williams]

Don't we normally have to start commenting on page 2 by now? Jamie, did you re-set that slider special like for tonight?

[jamie]

I spoke too soon about the turnout here too. There were actual queues outside one of the polling stations early this evening. Small queues, partly consisting of confused drunks. But still.

[Richard J]

David Dimbleby seems to be being remarkably testy tonight for some reason. His introduction of Peter Hennessy was bizarrely nasty.

[dsquared]

for what it's worth, the betting line has moved a lot; it was C321, L207, LD 89 before the exit poll and is now C325, L219, LD69. Not sure what this means (particularly the implicit Tory majority) as the markets are clearly behind the curve.

[Chris Williams]

Nervous because he feels deep down that this is his last election night outing? Next time, it's Mariella Frostrup.

We're over the fold now - I find that comforting. Or perhaps it's the 'phroaig. Still rather a feeling of phoney war. I want declarations.

[ajay]

"small queues, partly composed of confused drunks"

aka "Blood and Treasure comment threads"

[Richard J]

Heineken for me, possibly the leftover white in the fridge once it runs out.

Fuck me, Andrew Neil's party is back. He has the weirdest party guest list ever. Richard Wilson, David Baddiel, Ferne Cotton, Martin Amis, Simon Schama and David Starkey?

[Richard J]

Joan Collins?!?

[Chris Williams]

Andrew Neil?!? His guestlist is always going to have a massive disadvantange from the word go: the host. Anything after that's a bonus. Except perhaps Starkey.

[Charlie]

Ken Clarke upstaged by televisual pictures of Gordon Brown arriving somewhere. Ken Clarke not happy about that. He doesn't seem confident, either.

Might have to send out for a bottle of Scotch if it continues at this level of tension. Secretly hopeful for Battersea HOLD but accept this is unlikely.

[Chris Williams]

Shoulda voted with your heart, Charlie. It's all about communication in the end (apart from the relatively rare bits that are about genocide), and one aspect of the message we've got to send to the Labour Party has to be "Go too far to the Right and all the Toynbees in the world won't stop us rubbing your noses in it". Whereas our message to the Libdems should be "Enough with the bar graphs already."

[Charlie]

Let me tell you, it wasn't easy.

Also: polling stations tend to be fairly cheerful places. Not this morning: grumpy as hell.

[Chris Williams]

Ooh hello, the Greens are sounding slightly smug (and they do smug well) about Brighton. Certainly they depopulated the East Midlands to fuck off down there over the last couple of weeks.

[Richard J]

I was in Brighton last weekend. Certainly most of the posters in the windows I passed seemed to be Green. Not a particularly scientific measure, I'll grant you.

[Chris Williams]

PS - in answer to Mrs T, I'd probably need a gun to the head, but it's Sam. It's a posh thing - I don't understand.

[Charlie]

And it's not so much 'do'; a gentleman shows Samantha Cameron how to cast off the state of oppression that passes for her sex life.

[Richard J]

I can't honestly say I've given Mrs T's question much thought.

Mrs. Clegg, I think, after a quick refresher. Mind, you'd probably have more of a realistic chance with Gail Sheridan...

(I'm relying on the fact that the libel case would have been only on civil standards of proof, except if that doesn't work in Scotland.)

[Richard J]

Ah, the missus is back. Some diehards were staying in her office. Not out of having to work (outsourced to academics, apparently), but just because they're mainly politics wonks.

This may be a cue for bed.

[Chris Williams]

For me, a track record of anti-fascism is always important, which would put Gail in the utterly fictional running.

BTW - Splinty has beaten the count: http://splinteredsunrise.wordpress.com/2010/05/06/know-your-constituency-the-dreary-steeples/

[Chris Williams]

That Dimbleby grilling of the Electoral Commission person (shorter: "It's all your fault") exposed the fact that he wanted her to be able to issue orders, and she was trying to point out that she was given a job by statute and that wasn't it. She blew it by asking for more laws later, but at least she mentioned the fact that there are thangs called 'electoral petitions' which can arrive at the Commons and need to be dealt with. Hurrah, I say, channeling Joshua Toulmin Smith.

This is Dimbleby, for fuck's sake: he's supposed to know about this Black Rod shit.

[Alex]

this is the bit of a general election that pisses me off - all the cockery with no actual data.

@Charlie - you could be acting as a facilitator in her transition to lesbianism?

[Charlie]

Kingswood. Not good.

[Charlie]

But a very slight swing from Tory to Lib Dem in Torbay. That's a little bit more encouraging.

I facilitate a transition to dykery? What are you incinerating?

[Chris Williams]

Nonsense extrapolation fills my BBC window. I'm glad I don't pay a licence fee.

[Charlie]

Seems to be some regional variation in swing, though.

[Chris Williams]

Re Stoke -I'd like to take back all the snide nastiness that I directed towards Hunt in a book review a few years ago.

[Charlie]

And Nick Robinson just said what I said. I feel soiled.