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May 06, 2010

Comments

Chris Williams

Battersea. Con. See?

Chris Williams

Is Gordon resigning? The speech was rather valedictory, but there was also a big electoral reform chunk.

Charlie

With nearly a 6,000 majority as well. And with about 7,000+ going to the Lib Dem candidate.

Charlie

And some major tactical voting in Tooting. Lib Dem vote way down, and Labour hold it.

Charlie

Battersea now officially a borough of aspiration.

Since I've only recently moved here, what I really care about is Richmond Park. If Susan Kramer loses to Zac Goldsmith, there'll be tears.

Phil

Deeply depressed by Blunkett (even blogged it). The position is starting to look a bit less clear, again. Big f-off swings to the Tories absolutely everywhere... but not absolutely everywhere enough? Be still my beating heart.

Whichever of the main parties loses is going to absolutely tear itself apart, starting Monday at the latest. This may apply to all three of them.

Phil

"...and I'm joined by Kirstie Allsopp, Chris Addison and Shappi Khorsandi." Says Andrew Neil.

What's on the other side?

Chris Williams

sanity

Chris Williams

Scarfe was, at best, a homeopathically dilute Ralph Steadman. He has lost even that.

Phil - what are you drinking?

Phil

Nothing at the moment - a couple of pints and a Springbank earlier on.

Chris Williams

You shame me. I can't cope with the coverage without serious booze. The reality is easier to handle.

Charlie

Annunziata Rees-Mogg: unsuccessful.

Charlie

My theory about the Lib Dem difficulty: those on the Tory end of the Lib Dem spectrum are pissed off at what they consider to be a wet Lib Dem immigration policy, Trident, etc., and have defected Tory.

Phil

...and those of us who actually agree with a lot of current LD policy wouldn't touch them because they refused to come off the fence wrt equidistance from Labour and the Tories (see my blog recently, passim). Wheels come off permanent triangulation strategy.

Chris Williams

Might be true. Tories appear to be breaking through on unexpected fronts, and being driven back also on on unexpected ones. The voting cock-up thang strikes me as another manifestation of cheap video.

Brown is toast: a counter to be thrown into the pot by the Shoggoth.

Steve

"Annunziata Rees-Mogg: unsuccessful."

Three-and-a-bit words that make me very happy.

Charlie

Cameron looking to defend his position in his Witney declaration speech.

Chris Williams

I hoping for a pattern to emerge about now so that I could crawl off to bed with a bon mot or deux, my homo clausus reflexivity intact. Looking like it's not to be. The morning's looking increasingly dodgy as I pour another glass, and commit myself to another hour ro so of trying to work out how it's going to endd

Charlie

Bond markets: I didn't spot that. Was it the strong and stable government spiel?

jamie

"another hour ro so of trying to work out how it's going to endd"

Oh dear. Never mind. I'll wrap it up in an hour or so, and we'll leave the rest to Satan. Have a cup of tea and a fag and straighten your head the while.

Charlie

Chris: it looks to me as though there's going to be an erratic walk to Tory gains of around 100 seats and Labour losses of about the same. What does that come to in the end?

jamie

...and thanks for showing up, one and all. This has been a pretty good night, though not outside our little bubble and all.

Chris Williams

Sorry Charlie, I haven't the faintest. Lots of London stuff still to declare. I'd put a fiver on the Tories being 5 short, but it would be a crazy fiver.

Staying up for Brighton Pav...

Phil

Lord forgive me, I'm staying up for Gisela Stuart. She's a dreadful MP, and I remember thinking her election in the first place was a sign that the New Labour wave had gone far too far, but it would be so nice if the Tories failed to take the seat.

(Really ought to get a left alternative into gear in time for the next round.)

Chris Williams

Good: Griffin down. Bad: perhaps Cruddas down also. Worse: no sign of a pattern til 5am. I'm to bed. There will be some very bad tempered and quick to anger transporting of the kids to school tomoroow. Such is life.

Alex

Looks like (pace Brian Barder and Charlie above) a Well-Hung Parliament; the Paisleyites won't be enough to push the Tories over the top. Greens in.

Lord (Robert) Armstrong on the radio; obviously vastly smarter than all the other participants, but clearly traumatised by 1974. Tories lying.

Richard J

Good: Griffin, Wonko Fuckola, Jacquie Smith, Phillipa Stroud, Esther Rantzen, & Clarke down. Green win in Brighton. Parliament looking good and hung. Tories in some state of shock. A general trend that Cameron's faction seem to have been the big losers in the Tory party in terms of who's got in.

Neutral: One of the Rees-Moggs got in. Over the years I've drunk champagne with two people who are now Tory MPs (Nice Tories, mind).

Bad: Disappointing slump in Lib-Dem seats. Evan Harris getting voted out in favour of a fundy Christian.

Richard J

Also, some surprise that exit poll was accurate. Score one for Mrs J's work.

ajay

It's not great for Cameron; I mean, if you can't beat the government outright on the back of two unpopular wars and the biggest recession since the 1930s, when can you beat them?

Richard J

What ajay said.

ajay

When Cameron was elected as Conservative leader, I noted that, up to that point, Conservative leaders had tended to last roughly half as long as their predecessors. Thatcher 15 years, Major 7, Hague 4 and so on. I ran the numbers on this - obviously Cameron has already broken the half-life decay-curve model, but if you do a best-fit polynomial it predicts he'd go in June 2011.
Still looking good for that.

Richard J

A few senior Tories are supposed to be about to come public with their gripes and gruntles on how Cameron ran the campaign, so, well, interesting times. I genuinely don't know how this is going to play out. He's lost an awful lot of political capital, and the Tories have always been like sharks in scenting blood in the water.

Tom

"He's lost an awful lot of political capital"

His backers now presumably consist of a few loyal trusties in the Parliamentary party and the tabloids. Not sure that's exactly a Coalition of the Willing, really.

Boris is making his move. Really overtly, too.

ajay

Oh, hey:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8668305.stm
A Moscow court has handed down a five-year jail term to one of the eight men detained over the mysterious seizure of the cargo ship Arctic Sea.

The Beeb is baffled by the whole affair...

Richard J

That one belongs in the file alongside the Moscow apartment bombings; just happening to be carrying out corps-strength military exercises near Georgia; and various assassinations of lippy politicians. One of those incidents that makes you wish that there's a Procopious in the Putin camp.

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