two arguments

There’s a fresh faced fellow who looks all of fourteen arguing over here that Obama should accept nothing less than the unconditional surrender of the Taliban, irrespective of what anyone else involved thinks. He doesn’t let us in on how this is to be accomplished, how he defines Taliban, or whether there is anyone within it with the authority to take a general surrender, or whether he’s thought through the fact that his favoured policy means extending all out make-the-rubble-bounce war across Afghanistan and into Pakistan. The point is that he thinks it would make Obama more popular at home: feel those Lincoln vibes.

 On the other hand, Dan Hardie has an interview, conducted before the election, in Total Politics with former Guardsman and current Tory MP Adam Holloway, who argues that the generals are lying about how successfully the war is going, that most of the people the British army are fighting are locals rather than main force Taliban, and that the war is in part a proxy conflict between India and Pakistan. Resolution of this needs pressure on both sides across a range of related issues, notably Kashmir. 

I’m sure there are all sorts of arguments to be made against this latter proposition, but overall I’m glad that it’s the second line of argument which is currently getting the government’s ear, or at least competing aggressively for it.

Comments

[ejh]

I think that first piece is more of a job application than anything else.

[Splintered Sunrise]

Something worth reading in Total Politics shock. Holloway makes a lot of sense, in that you've got the hardcore Taliban and then you've got the village-based insurgency, so most of the Taliban aren't actually the Taliban and certainly aren't going to take an unconditional surrender from some mullah they've never heard of.

In re job applications, the speculation is that Petraeus is thinking about the GOP nomination, if not in '12 then in '16. Of course, he has to come out of Bananastan looking good, but then he's always been a spin-meister more than the battlefield genius the politicians think he is.

[Chris Williams]

Anyone fancy a Pledgebank for projecting "It's Kashmir, Stupid." on County Hall next time the Commons are due to debate this issue? Given that the Tories already support an Indian seat on the UNSC, how about they attach a teeny condition to this support: UNSCR 47?

[Cian]

Is there any evidence that the surge worked? Rather than, say, the civil war died down, the locals got fed up with Al-Quaeda crazies and Iran decided that Al-Sadr needed to calm down. Which is what it looked like from the outside. Talk about your causation/correlation error...

[Splintered Sunrise]

IIRC, the Petraeus plan in Iraq went as follows:

a) arm the Sunni insurgency
b) bribe the Sunni insurgency not to kill Americans
c) spread bribes around the other factions to stop them getting disgruntled
d) have a troop surge to deal with the smallish number of people who haven't been bribed, and
e) get yourself back to Washington before it all goes tits up.

It worked all right as a stopgap, and might work again, but it doesn't bear much resemblance to the political-class theory that this is all about building schools for Afghani women.

[Dan Hardie]

Ugh, the fresh faced fellow is really quite disgusting. I have to admit I did check that he wasn't a parody, especially given that his surname is 'Partridge' and his mugshot bears rather a strong resemblance to the most famous journalist to bear that moniker...