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December 10, 2010



I'm tempted to take that, on the grounds I think he'll be a European Commissioner by the time of the next election, so will be able to avoid that question for a while.

chris y

Agree with Nick, unless the next election is next year, in which case he'll be unemployed and will still be able to avoid the question for a while.

Igor Belanov

I don't think he will do it straight away. I think at first there will be a kind of 'National Liberal' group which the Tories will refrain from standing against at the next election. After that they may well merge into their rightful party. This would be the only way I could see the major 'coalitionists' surviving into the next parliament. It must be practically inevitable that the Lib Dems will split up eventually.


I think Igor's got the more likely idea: Clegg will need all the help he can get if the students either go for a decapitation strategy and/or a refusal to endorse him as a second/third/fourth choice under AV.

Chris Brooke

I like the way Viagra spam fits so seamlessly (like the baby shoe pattern) into the discussions at B&T.

And while I do think the Lib Dems are basically on a fusion trajectory with the Tories, there seem to me to be a number of ways in which things may play out, short of a full, official merger of the one party in the other, and I'd actually be quite surprised if Clegg & Cameron were members of the same party on election day in 2015 (or whenever).


Sheffield Hallam 2010 election:

Lib Dem: 27,324
Tory: 12,040
Lab: 8,228

Half the Lib Dem vote goes to Labour, the other half of the Lib Dem vote and all of the Tory vote goes to the 'National Liberal' candidate. Result: Nat Lib win.

So yes, the Tories could help out a lot of these characters if they effectively marshalled a tactical vote. Awfully risky stuff though, isn't it? In the 'Nat Lib' scenario, you have to persuade two sets of voters to switch.

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