setting-up the set-up

Elements of the left and the French elite seem to be throwing around the possibility that DSK's arrest was a "set-up," as Jamie noted. Tradecraft question; assuming one was a reasonably competent, unscrupulous, and well-funded intelligence agency, how would you even arrange an affair like this?  Even if you can find someone to make the allegation - and bear in mind the scrutiny that puts her under, and the skills of either sociopathy or first-rate lying that would be needed to keep up the claims, how do you so in such a way that nobody else reveals they were approached?  It's not as if hotel employees put "Unscrupulous liar willing to ruin politician's career for money' on their LinkedIn profiles.

In a just world, of course, being friends with Bernard Henri-Levy would be a punishable offence in itself.

Comments

[dsquared]

Well, how about if you happen to know that the target is a ticking time bomb of similar scandals, with a long track record back at home and a veritable geyser of shit waiting to erupt as soon as the press back home have a public interest pass on the libel and privacy laws? In that case, you really don't give two shits about whether your actual charge sticks up; even if the eventual verdict is "not guilty", that fellow is never going to be President of France. I've written before about the ponts et chaussees approach to conspiracies - you don't need to build your plot to last for the ages, just to do the job.

[Cian]

It kind of depends what the objective is. He's certainly finished for this particular election - there's no way that the trial will be in time. So that would work.

On the other hand, if it was a stick up, or started to look like one, the backlash in France would be enormous. It would finish Sarkozy and his crowd, even if it looked like dirty tricks (no proof needed electorally). And of course if he doesn't get charged, the sympathy vote may well make him a shoe in for the next election.

[Charlie]

I don't know, but I suppose if you had enough time you could inveigle a hotel maid by degrees, without revealing very much at each stage. Which, now I think about it, is probably what DSK should have done. Perhaps he was running late and needed to get it on urgently.

Also, how credible is a hotel employee who just turns up at the police station and says: "some man offered me money to say I was raped by that guy you just arrested"?

[JamesP]

I was thinking more about revealing it to the press than the police.

[dsquared]

"Knowing someone who might be up for that sort of thing" though, is the absolute fundamental of tradecraft, isn't it?

Also, remember that an intelligence agency (or disgruntled husband) gets to use the Texas sharpshooter trick. You don't make a plan, then have a big-screen powerpoint presentation in your lair and say "We have determined that Mr Strauss-Kahn will be laid low by ... a chambermaid! Now, who knows a hotel employee?". You take stock of your resources and then tailor the plan to fit them.

[Avin]

"I've written before about the ponts et chaussees approach to conspiracies - you don't need to build your plot to last for the ages, just to do the job."

In a sense its similar to the same 'good enough' principle that cheney followed often and as described in barton gellman's excellent biography: you dont have to win, as long as you can ensure that the other guy doesnt either...

[Chris Williams]

The institutions most likely to have a list of chambermaids on the staff in the USA would be American, not French. Were I NY chief of the Federal Sleazy Intelligence Agency, I'd quietly cultivate all sorts of contacts that might come in handy down the line.

But unless this is the hotel that the French government consistently uses to books its high-ups (and DSK was not working for the French state) it's a lot less likely that the Department de Renseignements Poisseux has been developing such a payroll on the sly.

This kind of thing, of course, is a good illustration of why intelligence agencies co-operate: the FBSI and the DRP might have a mutually back-scratching agreement. Indeed, given their remits, it's likely to be more intimate than that.

[to casual readers - this post is an in-joke, not an endorsement of a conspiracy theory]

[dsquared]

But unless this is the hotel that the French government consistently uses to books its high-ups (and DSK was not working for the French state) it's a lot less likely that the Department de Renseignements Poisseux has been developing such a payroll on the sly

But as I say, this isn't like sabotaging the Coronation or something - if your only ambition is "get Strauss-Kahn", then you don't need to have an agent in a specific time and place, you just run through your file and ask "who do we have who might sensibly cross DSK's path?", and then tailor your scenario accordingly.

[Chris Williams]

Indeed. But when the DRP run this, they are more likely to draw a blank _if they want to nobble DSK in the US_. But if they talk to their friends in the FBSI, they are more likely to get a lead sooner or later.

[Cian]

Chris, really how hard do you think it would be for any agency - public or private - to have a list of chambermaids who could be useful? I mean there are private organisations in the US who could probably manage this, and maybe have done. Dirty tricks is hardly a monopoly of the state in the US; private corporations have been doing it since at least the 1890s. For a recent example I would propose Elliot Spitzer.

[Chris Williams]

Er, not very hard at all. But given that there are several thousand top hotels around the planet, I'd imagine that they would have longer lists (of 'people who for whatever reason can be ordered to play a complex role at short notice and then be trusted not to crack under an immense amount of pressure') in their own capital cities.

There may well be a niche here for a genuinely private sector organistion, too. Perhaps the DSK contracted it to Sleazitime LLC.

[Cian]

Chris, think about this for a moment. Which cities are you going to pick? Its got to be somewhere he goes regularly, where the cops can be relied upon to deal with powerful men like him, and to take rape seriously. Its also got to be somewhere that he goes regularly. New York's perfect, plus it has the other attractive advantage of maximising the publicity.

So we're down to a single city.

Now how many hotels in New York do you imagine he frequents regularly? My guess would be one.

I don't think that this was a sting operation (where's the cocaine in his hotel room? That's what I'd do, just to increase the charges and reduce the pressure on my asset), but your arguments are pretty weak.

[CharlieMcMenamin]

Such speculations are irrelevant, even in the unlikely case that they're true. People who harass - never mind rape or assault - women shouldn't be President. Saying he was set up is throwing sand in the eyes of people trying to work out if he did what he is accused of.

[Richard J]

Now how many hotels in New York do you imagine he frequents regularly? My guess would be one.

Hold on...

The Sofitel has 398 rooms. Assuming it takes 45 minutes to clean a room daily (per a metric I've found indirectly suggesting this as a measure), you're looking at about 300 person hours to clean every room in the hotel, concentrated between, say, 10am and 3pm. As a rough guess, then, you're going to need between 50-100 maids on call to staff your hotel (to cover absences, holidays, busy periods, etc.).

It strikes me as very tricky, without raising suspicions, to ensure that your Mata Hari can get the right shift.

[Richard J]

e.g. you have a critical failure path (assuming you're keeping your circle of collaborators as small as possible):-

"Can I swap shifts with Jane?"

"No. Fuck off."

[Malcs]

IIRC, the Guardian report said it wasn't clear what DSK was doing in NY in the first place. His job is in Washington.

[Chris Williams]

Given that I agree with Charlie M in any case, I shall leave my castle in the air half-finished, in the manner of a Greek house.

[Chris Williams]

PS, although if anyone brought here by Google is hiring, I'd like to point out that I _am_ an unscrupulous liar willing to ruin politicians' careers for money.

[Cian]

The Sofitel has 398 rooms.

But fortunately DSK is a man with expensive tastes and an expense account, so you can rule most of them out. He liked the suite apparently.

Plus, you only need to make sure that you own somebody who organises the rota.

[Charlie]

Well, OK, if you routinely conduct yourself such that an accusation of rape looks plausible, even if it's not actually rape but entrapment, perhaps you are indeed a dodgy character. I'd tend to think so. One potential difficulty here is that 'rape' reaches right down into situations which might sometimes (normally?) be judged consensual; i.e. the situations associated with spousal rape, date rape, etc.. In the absence of obvious physical signs of struggle, only the victim's own reports of their own state of mind count as evidence: after all, everything circumstantial could be taken as utterly normal. Perhaps there are lots of women who have serious misgivings about the way they've been treated by DSK. These testimonials are now going to be interpreted as evidence of rape, or attempted rape. This is understandable; however I think it's worth considering that previously they might have been taken only as evidence of behaviour on the borderline of acceptability: i.e. a Clinton-Lewinsky. So I think there's a way for an entrapment to convert the possibly excusable into the utterly damning. And while it's probably the case that you couldn't similarly convert a record of behaviour beyond reproach into something damning, doesn't that then bar Clintons and Kennedys and such from public office? Which is not to say that I think that they shouldn't be.

Anyway, I think a lot here hangs on (a) how normal it is to attempt to have sex with a hotel maid (as opposed to a political intern, say) and (b) whatever physical evidence the NYPD has (they must believe they have something convincing).

[Cian]

Charlie:
It seems likely on the basis of the little that is known so far that he is guilty, but the defense team are claiming he has an alibi, so we'll see. I doubt he was set up, I just don't think it is entirely impossible, just implausible based upon currently available facts (I reserve the right to change my mind as the facts change, which they surely will).

The response in France is interesting, but not in a particularly flattering way. If a similar thing happened here, I suspect people would withhold judgement until more was known.

Incidentally, if the woman involved is truly as described (long term resident, with a child, from Africa, in her 30s) - I'm finding it hard to believe she'd make this up. Too much to lose; hell she had potentially a lot to lose bringing up a true accusation. If it all turns out to be true, I have great admiration for her and I hope she comes out of it okay.

[Cian]

Wrong Charlie. I was responding to the earlier post. Hmm.

[Richard J]

(a) how normal it is to attempt to have sex with a hotel maid (as opposed to a political intern, say)

Hopefully, this doesn't come across as Myles-level smuggery, but it strikes me that low-paid service industry workers in a job that, although demanding, doesn't require much specific training or facility with languages, are going to have an unusual concentration of people with dodgy immigation statuses. If you were looking for a class of victim depressingly unlikely to complain about sexual assault by well-connected rich people...

[Cian]

The other Charlie. If you're talking evidentially in a court of law, you might want to make that obvious. Currently it looks like you're justifying date/spousal rape.

And there's a huge difference between Clinton-Lewinsky, and using physical force; which is what is alleged by at least two women in France. Again, if you realise this, you might want to make it more apparent that you do.

[Cian]

Hopefully, this doesn't come across as Myles-level smuggery

No, it doesn't.

I think Myles has thoroughly established himself as a misogynistic snob on that thread.

[Charlie]

I think it's clear enough, but thanks.

[Charlie]

Although I suppose it could look as though I've put the word 'rape' in scare quotes, with the suggestion that I think that rape is sometimes not really rape. But they're not scare quotes. I mean the word, and I'm pointing out that there's a wide range of situations to which it's applied (often rightly).

[Alex]

RJ's point is a good one.

As well as being able to either control the shifts, or else infiltrate the place so thoroughly it doesn't matter, you'd also need to have advance information of his movements long enough ahead to change the rota. (Of course you might randomly get lucky, but if you have to find three shifts of 30 odd out of 100 maids there are too many permutations to rely on it.)

On this occasion, it would have been trivial to know he was off to Germany on Sunday, but not that he was stopping off in New York for (apparently) private reasons.

Alternatively, you could infiltrate someone from outside, but then it gets much more risky.

[john b]

But unless this is the hotel that the French government consistently uses to books its high-ups

It's the Sofitel. Accor Group's premium brand. The only five-star hotel in New York run by a big French hotel company with a loyalty scheme, and also quite a good hotel (so every Frog on Big Expenses stays there, for both reasons).

[john b]

If you were looking for a class of victim depressingly unlikely to complain about sexual assault by well-connected rich people...

This is a thought that I had when away from the web earlier today, and definitely not one in DSK's favour (aside from the deportation point, there's also the cultural point that someone from a non-American background is much less likely to be comfortable with kicking up a fuss about things in general unless they're *really* bad.)

On the other hand - and genuinely, I don't know enough about 5* hotels in developed countries to know the answer to this one - to what extent does tacit prostitution occur among hotel staff? I know it's significant in East Asia, and I'm fairly sure it's negligible in 3-4* hotels in Europe and the US (or insanely subtle), but if you're Dom or Silvio staying in the Big Swinging Dick Suite, will the Sofitel normally send you a lady who's willing to do extras?

[Richard J]

During a drinking session with Baz, Bob and Joe, Sid hears about the myth that you get a prostitute sent up to your hotel room if you call reception and ask for "an extra pillow". He dismisses the idea as ridiculous in front of his friends but, sure enough, books himself into a cheap Travelodge hotel later on and calls reception, asking for an "extra pillow". The hotel reception sends a maid up to his room with an actual extra pillow. Sid mistakes the maid for a prostitute and takes his clothes off in front of her, resulting in him being hospitalised after a serious beating. Later the doctor asks Sid if he would like "an extra pillow" to make him feel better. Sid takes the offer literally and accepts, only for the doctor to return with a prostitute.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sid_the_Sexist

[JamesP]

I've been at lots of hotels which had prostitutes attached - including one provincial Shandong hotel where the 心 in 中心 at the "Massage Center" had flashing red hearts in place of the three top strokes - but I've never been in one where the cleaning staff were turning tricks. (And in East Asia and Eastern Europe, the come-ons from the prostitutes are pretty obvious.) In New York, I believe it's all agencies, of various levels of discreetness and availability.

[Charlie]

I wonder if the best approach here isn't to just roll up all of the sceptical possibilities into one: the accuser's testimony might be false. And then give it a low probability, modified slightly upwards because of DSK's status.

Anyway, I think I now agree with Charlie M: the question of whether or not to vote for people who are susceptible to entrapments is separate. The reasonable choices are between believing of a candidate that (1) a true accusation will permanently change your mind about them, but a false one won't, and (2) both a true accusation and a false accusation will change your mind. You can argue that candidates must satisfy (1) without going into the odds of an actual entrapment. It's just an irony that the odds of an entrapment increase with the size of the group that satisfies (2).

[Cian]

John: If they did do that, don't you think this kind of thing would be quite common? Prostitutes is one thing; prostitutes in the hotel's uniform, possibly with cleaning materials is quite another.

[Richard J]

It'd certainly be an unusual fetish.

[ajay]

Richard: not that unusual; the French maid outfit is presumably a bestseller for a reason.

[Richard J]

But a badly-fitting polyester coat with fraying round the edges?

[chris y]

It'd certainly be an unusual fetish.

Not really. Half the internet is taken up with pictures of women in maid's uniforms and no knickers.

[Alex]

To answer a logistical point, according to Alan Beattie's twitter feed (occasional guest here), the Sofitel is not on the list of hotels the IMF will pass on expenses for a night in New York. I don't know what the French government would do, but in any case he hasn't been a French public servant for some time. As far as anyone knows, he was paying his own tab.

[Richard J]

I think, Chris, you might be in for a disappointment if you ever encounter a real hotel maid's uniform.

Sadly, thanks to conference-induced hangovers, I have, on occasion, come out of my rooms's bathroom stark-bollock naked, only to encounter the maid (and on one hideous occasion, thanks to my room mate heading down to breakfast leaving the door open behind him, a Finnish family). It's embarrassing.

[alle]

I think this settles the matter:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-05-16/bernard-henri-lvy-the-dominique-strauss-kahn-i-know/full/#

[dsquared]

I don't know what the French government would do, but in any case he hasn't been a French public servant for some time. As far as anyone knows, he was paying his own tab

Skyteam Airmiles.

I think "Can I switch shifts with Jane" is much more usually answered with "Yeah sure, I should fucking care" than "No, fuck off", and also that destroying Dominique Strauss-Kahn's career isn't really a ticking time bomb scenario - if you miss him this time, you'll probably have three or four more chances this year. Not that "it wouldn't be too difficult to set up" is evidence for anything, but well, it wouldn't be too difficult to set up.

[john b]

Chris: indeed, from 19th century What The Butler Saw machines onwards.

Alex: I'd imagine DSK is a platinum A-Club member, and that he was paying his own tab (DSK is privately wealthy as well, isn't he?).

Richard: BTDT, I feel your pain. I did manage to avoid forcing the maids in question to give me blow-jobs, though. This either shows remarkable restraint, or the kind of lack of ambition that means I'll never be a great success in international politics or finance.

Also, a million lolz at Appropriate Viz Reference. Wouldn't the world be a better place if the issue in discussion had been resolved with a lairy northern-lass-style beating?

[Cian]

not that unusual; the French maid outfit is presumably a bestseller for a reason.

Presumably not made from cheap and nasty polyester.

[CharlieMcMenamin]

Er, chaps - and I do assume, without definite evidence, that all of you except Belle are chaps - I wonder if you'd agree that this discssion has reached the point where the perspective of a few women might be helpful? There must surely be one or two female schlachtbummelers out there somewhere. Discussing the precise nature of a cleaner's uniform does rather suggest a certain focus is being lost....

[Cian]

Switching gears slightly, that BHL piece improves every time I read it. It may be his masterpiece.

This bit might be worth saving for the next time somebody cites BHL on women's rights:
I hold it against all those who complacently accept the account of this other young woman, this one French, who pretends to have been the victim of the same kind of attempted rape, who has shut up for eight years but, sensing the golden opportunity, whips out her old dossier and comes to flog it on television.

and I don't remember BHL making this argument when Saddam was paraded in far worse circumstances:
What I do know is that nothing in the world can justify a man being thus thrown to the dogs.

New York Post (I know) says that a source close to the defence team (I know) that they're going to go with a an argument that consent was given.

[Cian]

This Telegraph story about the IMF affair also fits with the rapist narrative:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/17/world/europe/17fund.html?hp

Certainly if he was fitted up, I'm finding it increasingly hard to care...

[john b]

Presumably not made from cheap and nasty polyester.

Have you never actually been to a fetish shop, seen a pub-level stripper, etc?

There are some delightfully high-end establishments, where Mr Mosley presumably procures canes for his companions; but there are also some *fucking budget* places where horrible things made from polyester and/or latex are on widespread sale. I imagine the same factories in China make the real hotel maid outfits and the $20 fetish ones; the only difference is where the holes go.

[john b]

"was consensual, but that she had felt coerced" - ie "was consensual, but it didn't work out, and ALL MEN ARE BASTARDS".

If DSK goes to jail, he'll do so for thoroughly deserved charges.

But the case with Ms Nagy, which had already been in the press, is precisely why no single person in their right mind would ever go and work either in America or for a Yank company: the insane puritan belief that you shouldn't date people you work with, coupled with Yank-level senses of entitlement and 'nobody should ever be allowed to hurt my precious feelings ever'.

The US is properly mental. They expect you simultaneously to spend all of your time with people from work, and not to go to bed with any of them. As far as I can make out, this reflects the view that nobody should ever go to bed with anyone.

AGAIN TO BE CLEAR: DSK's accused of attempted rape, not of naughtiness. If those actions are true, then he's a scumbag. A non-consenting chambermaid is very different from a consenting 50-year-old diplomat with a glittering career.

[Cian]

Have you never actually been to a fetish shop, seen a pub-level stripper, etc?

Never seen an outfit I'm mistake for the real thing, but I'm obviously not the connoisseur that you are. Hotel cleaner's uniforms (the real thing) are so functional as to repel the eye. I'm just not seeing it. The French maid outfit is a fantasy, I've never seen anything like it in a hotel.