Beijing summertime blues

I blogged a few days ago about an apparent showdown between China’s State Grid and the government. Mark Englehart Evans reports that State Grid has won. Beijing just announced a 3% increase in prices for industrial customers, on top of piecemeal price increases that have been imposed at lower levels, though the actual structural problem here is that demand for coal is outstripping supply.

There’s an interesting confluence of circumstances here, to wit:

There are plenty of good reasons to raise energy prices, but as noted earlier there’s still a sense that a small group of powerholders has managed to force its will on the CPC as a whole. So its worth looking out for what happens to State Grid boss Liu Zhenya in future.

Beijing seems to have announced a partial moratorium on mining in Inner Mongolia as part of its response to the ongoing demonstrations there. Just to make things more fateful, local Party Secretary Hu Chunhua is widely tipped as China’s president after Xi Jinping’s ten years are up. I note with some depression that he’s a year older than me.

That means more coal imports and rising prices, especially since drought in central China means that hydropower can’t be used to take up some of the slack. Drought also, of course, means less production and higher food prices. And as I've said before, China buying internationally what food it can't grow at home is going to have consequences in the Middle East. And severe though it is, this particular instance of drought is arguably simply an expression of China's chronic water sufficiency problems. 

It’s the big boss handover next year, with a corresponding imperative towards party unity – involving, perhaps, the squelching of necessary debates among the CPC overclass.

So let’s see: blackouts, rising food and fuel prices, natural disasters, unrest out in the borderlands, factional imbalances among the ruling class and a change of emperor. Worst of all, if they don't sort it out there'll be a lot of western columnists going on about the mandate of heaven.

Comments

[ejh]

I note with some depression that he’s a year older than me.

Do you mean in the sense of "what have I achieved?" or "oh my God, the bastard's going to be with us for decades to come"? (Such was my reaction a few days ago on reading that this chap was only a year older than me.)

[jamie]

Mainly it's the "you know when you're getting old when x is younger than you". Obviously he isn't, but President of China isn't one of those jobs you imagine even being close to the age of the incumbent.

[ejh]

Actually looking at that Ferguson piece I realise he studied history at Oxford at exactly the same time as I did. Christ. Mind you I can't remember ever being invited down the pub by Norman Stone. There's Oxford and there's Oxford.

[Alex]

Has anyone actually seen him speaking German?

[chris y]

President of China isn't one of those jobs you imagine even being close to the age of the incumbent.

Depends how old you are, son. He's 12 years younger than me. Other mere chabbies who seem to have gained the influence and power due to the wisdom of my grey hairs include Obama, Putin, Cameron and Sarkozy, so I'm getting used to it.

[ajay]

I was depressed to find recently that I was older than the Trade Minister of one of the former states of the USSR, and my depression was alleviated only slightly by the realisation that she was amazingly hot.

[chris williams]

I was invited for tea at Norman Stone's, but turned down the offer. I was rather a hands-off undergraduate all round, to be honest.

It is time for 'how bad did I feel about fancying a member of the house of lords?' yet?

[Barry Freed]

Ajay, Vera Kobalia?

And being of an age with ejh I share the sentiment.

[chris y]

It must have been a bit of a bugger for her to negotiate with the IMF until lately.