more Ma

Taiwan went to the polls today with the election proclaimed as too close to call. I’m not sure how they actually worked that one out, since there was no polling for ten days in advance of the vote. Still, there were a number of factors pointing to a possible change of government. Firstly, the hardline pro-unification People First Party was running a spoiler candidate against Ma Ying-jeou, who at one point was running at ten percent in the polls. All those votes would have come from the KMT. Meanwhile, the Taiwan Solidarity Union, the militant pro-independence faction, decided to give Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP a clear run. And there’s also a ‘shy DPP voter’ factor to contend with, dating from the Kuomintang’s days as the party of Taiwanese dictatorship.

Also, in the days before the election a couple of hundred thousand Taiwanese working on the mainland and in Hong Kong came home to vote. These ‘Taishang’ are overwhelmingly KMT supporters. So it was clear that Ma and his people were expecting a close poll.

As it happens, the PFP spoiler vote collapsed and Ma and the KMT won by 51-45%; closer than last time but by a larger margin than anyone expected. People are noting that Beijing will be pleased by the result. True enough, but Beijing also kept its mouth shut during the campaign itself, having learned in the past that making threatening noises was a great driver of votes to the DPP.

It’s worth pointing out here that the DPP had significantly moderated its position under Tsai. The fact that she was Hakka itself indicated that the DPP were moving from a kind of ethnic minnan nationalism based around redefining the Taiwanese as non-Chinese towards a civic nationalism based around Taiwan’s separate historical experiences and political institutions. For his part, Ma had promised that there would be ‘no-reunification and no independence’ based around the ‘one China, two interpretations’ modus vivendi adopted in 1992. Tsai had similar policies, but preferred to frame them around a ‘Taiwan consensus’ which she seemed to have trouble articulating. She was also in favour of diversifying the economy away from dependence on China, but again a bit patchy on the details.

So this wasn’t a hope versus fear election. In as much as China was salient, it came down to what the ‘commonsense’ position on relations with the mainland should be. And in the event, the population of a de facto nation that votes enthusiastically (a 74% turnout, which will be a good 20% higher than what we’re going to see in the US later this year) and which overwhelmingly opposes unification with China decided, by a significant majority, that the broadly pro-China party was the best positioned to maintain its autonomy and its democracy (and, of course, its economy). This does not provide evidence for the proposition that China’s belligerence to its neighbours amounts to a threat that requires a greater US military presence in the region.

At the same time, people in China enjoyed a ringside seat for the whole thing. there was lively discussion on Weibo and restaurants in Shanghai reportedly had the results on a live feed. Part of the CPC’s general argument against democracy is that Taiwan serves an example of what it would bring to the rest of China; unwanted particularism and the introduction of the principle of dissolution to the Chinese nation. That, too, was shown to be unfounded.

Comments

[David]

A good 45% higher.

[David]

In case someone misinterprets that as pedantry, midterm turnout really is 30% typically.

[Phil]

I'm still getting my head round the KMT being the party favoured by Beijing. If there are any Taiwanese Communists backing the DPP my head may explode.

[ajay]

Also, in the days before the election a couple of hundred thousand Taiwanese working on the mainland and in Hong Kong came home to vote. These ‘Taishang’ are overwhelmingly KMT supporters.

Apparently KMT has chartered its own flights to bring overseas Taiwanese home to vote in previous elections. (Source: an overseas Taiwanese friend.)

[ejh]

I'm still getting my head round the KMT being the party favoured by Beijing

Well, we're going back to the Thirties, so why shouldn't the CCP go back to the policy of 1927?

[chris y]

Oh Fuck, does that mean Putin will respond to the fiscal crisis by forced collectivisation?

[David]

"Apparently KMT has chartered its own flights to bring overseas Taiwanese home to vote in previous elections."

I've read they're the richest party in the world b/c illgotten gains in the dictatorship period, so it's possible.

[Alex]

Wildly OT, but did you see this? Thieves dug a tunnel, installed lighting, and cut through 15 inches of concrete to break into a cash point in Fallowfield. Which contained £6,000. I almost feel it may have been an art project.

[CMcM]

..which reminds me: 20 yrs ago I was working for a big Housing Association. We had a couple of properties in a terrace in a rundown bit of a Northern City (not Manchester). But we couldn't keep them filled - every couple of months the latest tenants would demand to be moved after a string of burglaries. The doors were strengthened, the windows fixed with state of the art locks but not no avail. Eventually we gave up and sold the houses after the last robbery involved the people simply breaking into the vacant house next door and sledgehammering their way through the living room wall.

[ajay]

Yes, I saw that.
Even if they'd got the full £20,000 it wouldn't have been a great return for several months' work once you split it between the (presumably at least 3 or 4) gang members. If your great money-making plan was "let's all work at McDonalds" you'd have got a better return, without the "am I going to be arrested" thing, or having to work in a four foot high tunnel.

[ajay]

My colleague suggests that you could probably get the Crossrail tunnel dug at very low cost by simply placing a line of cash machines along its route (like those little dots in Pac-Man) and telling the Manchester underworld about it.

[Phil]

Somehow I visualise this as Pacman-meets-Lemmings. In hoodies.

[belle le triste]

Doesn't the equivalent scene in Sexy Beast also involve a swimming pool somehow?

(Lemmings don't actually do the only thing anyone knows they do do: Disney totally made this up, Attenborough-style...)

[ajay]

Actually I was picturing something more like the fencepost scene in Tremors (THE GREATEST ACTION FILM EVER). You know, Kevin Bacon and Fred Ward running for their lives from the Underground! Goddam! Monster! along a fenceline, which is gradually disappearing post by post behind them as the monster catches up.

[belle le triste]

(THE GREATEST ACTION FILM EVER). fixed

[skidmarx]

It doesn't have quite the same Brutalist aesthetic as
stealing a cashpoint with a JCB.

[Barry Freed]

A more suitable video game reference would be Dig Dug. And with those 8-bit graphics you get your hoodies too.